‘BITCOIN’E ZOR SORULAR – GERÇEK EKONOMİ 13 – 13.04.2019


conics gotcha economy program an estimate [Music] [Music] yeah I took a condom you kids dah marble are there is the UH Nashville sound kinda goes the higher the monkey via number in it I New York Jews Gaza PG o / our canoes were my will I convey no security mission on Bundy boo can I convey little it a Bitcoin nihilistic just hold on buzz those who let any other Jose bouquet is a bit console jock I come baby little bouquets Kanu’s San Francisco down Oh Jacques I come across some chubby Colombo’s nice McDonald candy say Bitcoin a crypto para sorry in the my Shang gusta Gillis their deepest but surely bliss arugula mother in Latin on you know each to the woman is me change tip T Google AMA social media suppl originally email a subdivision done micro Adam a up mayor you do very burly just social media do sonically the ending is partially bulldoze Cherokee return little areas are Laura polish Angela like the Bitcoin micro development council you to say excess Amanda Gail abortion although 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little bit so every single type of money in the world whether that be printed money electronic money requires energy so if we were to evaluate bitcoins energy usage we should evaluate it against all other types of money in gold mining we must first evaluate in between more or less wasteful than the existing monetary systems and then we should also look at what the function of eight-point energy consumption does and so for point one when we look at the point of entry usage relatively go before to the existing financial system which keep in mind the existing financial system is not only printing money but it is the Federal Reserve I’m using the United States as an example Federal Reserve all of the banks all the people that work in the banks all of the food that those people eat the cars and the homes of those people live in and drive to work and the air conditioning costs the heating costs and the costing the energy required to build this to build the locations and all the bank servers and so on and so forth if we evaluate bitcoins energy usage relative to those that the energy used by the existing monetary system because magnitudes less much much smaller and the reason why people look at the clinton energy usage you go hey this seems wasteful is because it’s so transparent it’s so easy to calculate the coins energy usage when we try to calculate the banking infrastructure usage it takes a lot more time to do and so you know to my second point what is bitcoins energy usage do well certainly if we just took it and didn’t do anything like that we might be able to call that wasteful but I would caution you if you call that wasteful then if you’re watching the Kardashians on TV instead of wasteful – so let’s throw the first stone right so when it comes to a big land energy usage it does something very very important which is it mints new coins and protects bitcoins ledger and I think a good analogy for the real world is that we would build walls and bolts around things that we care about we want to protect things we want to protect loved ones and items who build a wall event we build a bulk amount but we would protect it and to do those requires energy to build big claim does that in the digital world by using energy in the real world to build digital walls around something I wants to protect and what’s so beautifully simple about the Khans energy usage is the cost to destroy the wall is exactly the costs that it took to build it and that’s all transparent for everyone to see great and let’s move on to the next question some people say that and I also say that we know that a couple of mining companies all more than 50% of the Bitcoin networks hash power is Bitcoin vulnerable to a 51% attack and is this a real threat for Bitcoin the quick pointers always try to examine critical vulnerabilities in my network so this is a this is a good question that people should ask while there is a manufacturer called grit name that be factors 96 those are the Bitcoin miners those are then sold to many many participants so there is no one participant who physically owns 51% of Bitcoin miners they’re owned by many many many participants because fit name is a manufacturer not me not the operator and so big coins if you look at their point mining pools which represents pool resources of the coal miners together those are pretty diverse and those don’t have an accumulation of over 51% and we’ve seen that trend through time become more decentralized I’d also like to note that even if a pool had greater than 51% but Satoshi brilliantly architected in the protocol was that Bitcoin mining if you have the body equipment and you have to purchase the energy ahead of time because of the fire so much if you did that and then you decided to be malicious and attack the network you would lose all your money because those computers aren’t good for anything else take the money or burn the money it’s your choice but Satoshi brilliantly architected the critical to understand and play into humans need a human in there noob to make money to be greedy then as far as I know even an entity acquires 51% of the hash power and tries to attack the network it can only stop the network it cannot change records about who owns how much Bitcoin or it cannot change transactions except try am i right that’s correct even if you did at 51% of the mining power you would you would be able to double stand but it doesn’t mean that you necessarily be able to rewrite the ledger the ledger being everyone’s transactions and balances and even if that moment happened that’s against the social protocol of the network which means that we social layer of everyone holding the money in Bitcoin we could decide to fork but move our money to another chain but at that moment didn’t happen that would be a very very it’s a very extremely unlikely event and that would be a last resort sure and the next question comes to mind is what if a hostile may be an official entity tries to attack the network for example Federal Reserve decided to attack the network and destroy it they are printing unlimited amounts of money with their unlimited amounts of dollars they purchased a huge bulk of computers and they established a mining pool and attacked the network I’m aware that it’s a very weird scenario but if they do it so they could make a 51% attack and what will be the next move on the bit coincide them doing that very far in advance because they would have to start buying those machines in an operation to do that which would signal their move very hard to build that much computing power in secret almost impossible mmm so if they did start buying and be likely see it happening which then might incentivize other people to start buying equipment they could start with sort of an arms race yeah if they did it if they did it perfectly in secret when I found out and when they launched it entirely 51% attack the network Bitcoin could switch to a different peoples work algorithm which would make their entire expenditure go to zero so that would be the social consensus on profit of trade a call consensus we all believed and put our moments stored in Bitcoin because we we agreed upon certain rules for today’s rules on 51% attack in the chain and then trying to reread all these transactions repeatedly over and over and over again what really breaks the social contract of why we all bought into this okay in the next question some researchers estimate that more than 90% of existing bitcoins belongs to around 4% of the users what does this mean for average Bitcoin investors is one year they go and look at the blockchain the Bitcoin blockchain which is a record of all the transactions and look at all the addresses so that isn’t a good way than look at the claim ownership because you don’t know who owns which address when we look at the largest addresses those are typically owned by nations and in exchange represents millions and millions of people however there has been some analysis done for example by Unchained capital an Unchained capital baited with a very detailed research but they looked at different waves of ownership now we don’t know for sure how many people are buying or selling a folder in there any of those sort of you know we don’t know in an individual basis but we can look at in aggregate basis and you can also kind of identify some address that was being looking like they might belong to them individual versus a company and when they look at that they do see that with each boom-bust cycle hmm you have a wave of people who bought early and the boom they sell and then there’s another boom the next one they sell and so we’ve seen their coins be redistributed pretty widely through the Bhutanese boom-bust cycles which is entirely intuitive because if you just made fifty million dollars you might want to go buy a house the diamond ring so you know it’s people people have human needs and eventually we need to sell sure and the next question what do you think about Roger verge Bitcoin cash project and people saying that Bitcoin must be used in daily transactions in order to reach mass adoption great question so my first application called zero block I’ve spent a lot of time with Roger I think Roger is a nice guy in person I think he’s done some good things for Bitcoin in the early days I think he was very misguided with the Bitcoin cash mm-hm direction that he went he was disappointing to see I think a lot of it Rogers personality was tied into the idea of Bitcoin being paid for payments just the thing it was in his entire identity who he was and so when the rest of the Bitcoin community said hey we have a tough decision to make and we’re going to preserve bitcoins best characteristics which are the immutability of the money not not cheap that it’s not a cheaper PayPal it’s a digital gold 2.0 yeah you know that’s that was the split and a majority of the corners of 90% agreed with it being gold 2.0 and he didn’t and he couldn’t reconcile that and so that’s why he’s off in the big fun cash and and took that other people that believe that over there ultimately we’ve seen big Comcast get crushed over the last year especially since Bitcoin cash was born by a fork and also started to die by the fork because bitcoin cash itself forked into Bitcoin ABC and Vik Muniz mom was equally silly and stupid I think the fork isn’t it waste of time and money I am disappointed with Roger Bitcoin calm I I respect Roger and a lot of his business dealings but I’m dick coin calm if you go there they’ve changed the icon for Bitcoin versus Bitcoin caster where they make it confusing for first-time buyers they also called Bitcoin Bitcoin for the only website that I know that does that and I think that’s really misleading and I would really push him to change that I find that very unsavory so largely we’ve seen Bitcoin cash failed I think it’s good we can move on and we can prove out that folks are in a good way of governing I in fact that revere in the video about a month ago says you know he goes I might have changed my mind on folks being a good idea when he’s right because there’s support consensus just to for talk and create two different chains you’ve split the community and you degraded the quality of of each community but I despite Bitcoin cash being a really bitter civil civil war Bitcoin one Bitcoin survived that which makes me more bullish than ever Bitcoin can survive itself yes and what can stop it to be clear then when you said Bitcoin cash crashed you didn’t mean the price I guess you meant usage of the network can accept raw yeah there’s different metrics we could quantify us quantify us crash which thank you for bringing that up one would be the price or the market capitalization you can also look at number of transactions on chain they have very very very little transactions one chain Bitcoin cash calls itself a more transactional Bitcoin that Bitcoin was meant to be something that you use to pay for your coffee or a cheaper PayPal and what we see is no one’s using that or very few people using it which is entirely intuitive I think crypto is especially Bitcoin I think Bitcoin is incredibly positioned to a gold 2.0 which is really really valuable for the world there’s more money in something that can’t be seized by your government that’s fantastic or sorry very hard this you play a government you know that’s incredibly powerful but you know as we’ve seen with sort of Bitcoin was made for payment narrative that ultimately failed third and entirely intuitive reason and that’s because you know I’ve been there in the early days of Bitcoin in 2012 and 2013 I built some of the earliest products that tried to get people to use Bitcoin in person blockchain has a merchant product called watch a merchant you can look at it in the App Store it has three movie three star reviews then I went to changed it which is micro payments over social media so you can tip people on Twitter little amount of their claim I was the project manager of both of those products well I don’t think people want to use Bitcoin to payments because it’s slower harder to use more expensive and there’s intraday volatility now lightning is really exciting because it solves a few of those lightning over time can become more simple which I think will give it a better user experience it’s fast it’s super cheap lightning is essentially a new software update to Bitcoin that enables it to do really really cool things like be faster and cheaper that lightning doesn’t solve the volatility of the price daily sure and on this subject my idea is the current monetary system doesn’t have a problem with daily transactions it doesn’t have a big problem with daily transactions it’s almost working perfectly its problem is it doesn’t store any value the US dollar which is the most prominent fiat currency on the world lost its purchasing power by more than 90 percent since the establishment of a Federal Reserve in 1913 and I think people want to save money the other day we were working on a report about a recent IMF work to IMF economists are proposing to Bank cash in order to let the central bank’s implement unlimited negative interest rates so that people won’t be able to save money even at the banks but they would always need to spend it or invest it’s a crazy scenario but they are seriously discussing it and I think a smart government or a smart central bank should adopt Bitcoin because out of the u.s. all the central banks like us can save money if they don’t use gold of course and I think in the future maybe in the near future a central bank could decide to diversify its foreign exchange reserves which using Bitcoin do you think a central bank could do this and if your answer is positive so which central bank could do it first yes as Satoshi chose the 21 million card cap so there can only be 21 million bitcoins ever created which makes it called a disinflationary currency it means up the rate of inflation slowly dropped over time until it goes to zero or close to zero and that’s very important for a couple of reasons Satoshi do that one because it’s impossible to choose a proper rate of inflation it what’s a proper rate of growth we don’t have enough data to compile those information because you would have to know every single person’s head and what they think what they want to buy and eat and drink and sleep and how long they want to work so Bitcoin Satoshi did it not only for that but also because it’s the perfect bio loop as Bitcoin as demand for Bitcoin increases supply doesn’t increase as well so we can imagine that we all wanted to buy apples and apples was really popular this year we might grow or try to you know harvest more Apple next year to meet the demand money supply would mean for the man so Bitcoin doesn’t have a supply response which means when demand increases the supply remains fit remain steady and so that’s why we see these boom-bust cycles and what that does is the boom-bust cycle draws attention to Bitcoin but a few friends who stick around and they believe in it and so with each new time it does that it builds core group of believers right now we’ve just seen those stages pull in retail people so retail traders are like you and I we’re not we don’t work at Deutsche Bank or Goldman Sachs mm-hmm we’re not allocating billions of dollars at a hedge fund but the next stage of bitcoins boom-bust cycle is about to bring in the wave of those individuals but those types of companies and then maybe the wave after that one will be when central bank’s come in they could come in this next one so with each wave is wrong you know first it was very nerdy cypherpunk types and then the next wave in 2013 was like a little bit more you know techie San Francisco types and this last wave was a lot of people across the world especially Asia and the next wave is going to do the institutional money which ones they catch from investment banks central banks we’ll see what they do you know they require lots of social validation what I mean by that is that Goldman Sachs says it’s okay you know a central bank wants to see the big banks get into it before they dip their toes in the water mm-hm and so I think we have a you know probably five to ten years before a big big central bank to dip their toes into the water and in terms of who might do it that’s a great question I think probably not in the United States I would I would hope the United States would the United States is a great country but it also had its problems I think it’ll be countries that have lived under the oppression of the US dollar they will likely buy Bitcoin to create a new financial system that that isn’t controlled by the United States my candidates are it could be Iran interestingly because they are moving so fast lately they drafted a bill legalizing all the cryptocurrencies in the country mining and trading can accept or maybe they next move could be buying Bitcoin for their central bank it could be Russia maybe there are rumors about that not confirmed but there are rumors and same for me I hope my country Turkey do it first that’s what’s beautiful about break point is that it’s not political at all yeah truth and purchase it as they would wish yeah very Protestants not anymore yeah central bankers if they work with gold why not working with Bitcoin it’s almost a digital gold it was great pleasure to host you then thank you very much for your time maybe we will hold another interview in the near future great thank you very much and associated Bitcoin the result admire hungee will kibosh lush sri suta be candle Cassini each card done at bandik and welcome her mixed Wanda Oh Sharon Academy secure Iran when Israeli the Argentine on the argument the Iran CRC regional bookings regional shop behind him Suleiman and choc anti-democratic Google Oliver Ames are jewelers a Muslim are Bowie qlk geopolitics are 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