Bitcoin Is Preparing for a Big Move | Mati Greenspan Vs. Erik Crown


Hey, everyone. Today, I’m joined by Mati Greenspan
and Erik Crown to discuss the current direction
of the Bitcoin market, regulation and the
future relevance of cryptocurrencies. My name
is Jackson and welcome to this week’s Crypto
Duel. First, let’s get your guys take on the
crypto market, specifically with regard to
Bitcoin. Are we headed up? Are we headed down?
Are we headed sideways? What are the numbers
and charts telling us?
So Bitcoin, this is a daily Bitcoin right
here.
Overall, you know, very little has changed
since we last spoke. And to be quite honest
with you, for better or worse. However, if
you are asking about the more proximal action
on Bitcoin, just kind of what you expect or
what I’m expecting for this week, we do have
a pretty obvious sort of setup going on right
here. And there’s a few things that are of
interest right now in the lower timeframes,
lower timeframe being a daily right now. And
I am starting to see a lot of momentum also
to sort of turn back up. My favorite indicator,
my personal indicator is the jewel. And this
actually fired off a decent buying signal
a couple of days ago on the low. So I’m kind
of split in the way that I’m looking at this,
because short term, you know, do I think that
we have some upside? Probably, yes. You know,
the way that I trade it would be mostly the
same. I do think that if we take out yesterday’s
high at $8,350ish region on BitMex, I’ll be
looking for a move to test back up towards
about $8,650-$8,700. But that doesn’t really
do anything for the greater picture. And I
think that that’s probably what this video’s
more focused on. As far as the greater picture
goes, you know, the levels that are relevant
are still very much the same. $8,650 to the
upside and about $7,800-$7,900 to the downside
right here.
You know, any sort of a short term play is
just that. And I do believe that the way that
we break yesterday’s, you know, yesterday’s
doji right here, or if you want to call it
a shooting star, whatever you want to call
it, that kind of acts as the same thing. I
do believe it’s gonna be our short term direction
and we’re gonna test, you know, the outside
of the range, whichever way that we break
and so forth. You know, in this example, be
looking for a test back up to $8,600-$8,700
if we do break north above $8,350. If we broke
south below $8,150, I’ll be looking for return
back down to about $7,900-$7,950ish region.
And realistically you know that’s probably
the most unsexy answer realistically is sideways.
I am a little bit biased here to the upside
just based off of that. However, longer term
I am biased to the downside, especially to
go below $8,700 because death crosses are
coming on the way and I do put a significant
amount of weight on all major moving averages
which are really shaping up to be quite bearish
the longer that we stay below $8,700. So it
is a little bit of a ticking time bomb. I
believe that the bears were gonna take full
control. They would have done it a few days
ago when they had their chance right here.
The fact is that we’re going more and more
sideways actually does bode better for the
bulls. But I would expect to see a move probably
a little bit later this week to test one of
the outside’s the range. And at that point
in time, we’ll once again be able to maybe
get that next breakout trade. If we do break
north of about $8,700, I would target a move
towards $9,300-$9,400 back up here probably
applied another slow bounce I suppose. I’d
still be overall cautious. I am a very, very
defensive in this market right now, even though
I am slightly, I actually just flip slightly
long right now. I’m quite defensive in this
market and even if we did work our way back
up to the mid to low $9,000 side, still kind
of be thinking to myself like, you know, likely
still a lot of resistance in that region.
I’m not necessarily convinced that the downside
is over. And of course, if we do break below
$7,800-$7,900 right here, I would target that
next move, as I’ve been speaking about towards
about $6,900. And then be looking for a bounce
around that. But other than that, you know,
again, it’s kind of an unsexy answer, probably
mostly sideways here in the lower timeframe
range, you know, of about two and a three
dollar moves north to south, it’s really the
only thing that I’m playing right now.
How are you feeling about all that, Mati?
So what you’re saying, Erik, is that if it
breaks below the relevant support level, you’d
go short, actually.
Yeah, exactly.
Okay. So there’s a bit of a difference between
the two of us, because personally I don’t
short gold and I don’t short Bitcoin. And
as you can see in my portfolio, I do believe
that it’s correct to be defensive at the moment.
But for me, what that means is to lower my
exposure on the long side. You want to talk
about the big picture? We really need to zoom
out a little bit on the charts over here,
because that analysis is spot on for what
it is. It’s a very short term play. If you
look at the long term, however, all of what
you were showing on your screen fits in this
little kind of area over here, which is since
the end of last month, we’ve been in a consolidation
range, which is actually a very low volume
consolidation. If you look across the board
right now, volumes are, I wouldn’t say historically
low, but they’re incredibly low compared to
what we’ve seen over the last two years. You
can see that, for example, on Messari Crypto,
who tracks the Top-10 exchanges. They’re tracking
about $200 million for the Top-10. That number
has reached four or five billion as little
as three months ago. As well on the CME group,
the CME group futures are kind of steady,
actually, but still pretty low. Bakkt is almost
nonexistent. We’re talking about three Bitcoin’s
traded today. And then even on the Bitcoin
blockchain, we can see that over the last
few weeks there was a significant drop in
transfers on the existing blockchain. So when
volumes are low like this, volatility is low.
This is a high risk situation, which means
for me that I want to kind of cut my exposure.
But for the long term, I’m still definitely
long.
Joe Weisenthal, host and editor at Bloomberg,
took to Twitter to voice some speculation
about the use-case and efficacy of Bitcoin.
To summarize his rather lengthy tweet, he
argues that there is no point in using Bitcoin
for legal transactions because you can just
use a much faster payments system, like a
Visa credit card, so the main use-case for
Bitcoin is to make transactions that Big Businesses
and Big Governments don’t want you to do.
He goes on to add that because Bitcoin is
propped up by a symbiotic relationship between
speculators and transactors – meaning that
the more transactions are made, the more investors
will be attracted, and more investment leads
to greater price stability, which benefits
transactors. His point is that because of
this relationship, Bitcoin investors are essentially
enabling transactions that are against the
interests, and possibly the law, of “The
MAN”. He then uses this argument to issue
a warning, asking “how sure are you that
down the road regulators won’t come in and
shut it all down?” As two people who actually
trade Bitcoin on a regular basis, what do
you think about his perspective on Bitcoin?
I think he really destroyed his credibility
with that last statement there to say what’s
going to happen if the government comes in
and shut things down shows that he hasn’t
really done the research into what this is
and what he’s talking about. Which makes you
think that his prior comments are likely unfounded.
I mean, of course, there’s some truth to it
as well, like no doubt about that. But that
last little clip there tells me, you know,
this guy’s maybe not the most informed. How
would the government shutdown Bitcoin legitimately
in the sense where they just complete snaffled
it? Of course, they can make it difficult.
They could, you know, put in sanctions or
whatnot with making sure that, you know, banks
know exactly where your money is going. So
if you were to send money to exchanges, some
like that, they could maybe track that. I
can understand that. But even then, there’s
still no way to truly shut it down. So, you
know, through that conversation, I’d have
to first understand exactly what he means
by that. And then second, you know, Judge,
OK, is this you know, is this founded or not?
And I’d say at the outset, probably not.
What he was trying, I can kind of clarify,
because I was quite part of this conversation.
What he was trying to say is that because
Bitcoin is intended or its sole use is transactions
against the man, therefore we shouldn’t necessarily
be rushing to institutionalize it. That was
kind of his main point. I actually wrote an
open letter to Joe Weisenthal that day, which,
as you can see, he was kind enough to tweet
out to promote the discussion. The letter
is called “Where are you goin’ with that gun
in your hand?”, of course, a play on words
from Jimi Hendrix “Hey Joe”. And the point
in my letter was pretty much that Bitcoin,
yes, it does have roots in sticking it to
the man. But I would argue that that’s not,
first of all, that’s not the only use case.
I’ve outlined several use cases that are not
necessarily sticking it to the man or related,
but more than that, there are use cases that
are sticking it to the man related, giving
it to the global economy, the big banks, etc,
but not necessarily illegal or illicit, meaning
that as a free country, the United States
should be able to have the option to kind
of choose their own money and to kind of choose
their own source of that and to choose the
financial institutions that they choose to
work with or to opt out if they so choose.
And therefore, my conclusion, of course, is
that if the United States truly stands for
freedom, then they should be embracing a product
like Bitcoin that is immobilizes what freedom
is. But overall, and as you can see, I put
it to analysis here, a chart from TheTIE.io,
which basically shows the point where Joe
started his attack on Twitter and actually
the sentiment on Bitcoin Twitter actually
went up significantly. It had dropped because
of the price drops. But actually, the entire
discussion that Joe created around Bitcoin
actually seems to have served to lend a positive
hand in the sentiment of crypto on Twitter.
Right. But as we all know, the sentiment gauges
on crypto Twitter are notoriously inversely
related to price action. The thing with that
is and I agree with you here. You know, this
person just sounds like, it just sounds like
the traditional just old man saying, you know,
Bitcoin is bad and you should not like it.
I think that’s just a very lazy, it’s extremely,
extremely lazy argument. You just say, you
know, this is for sticking it to the man,
he has like a very clear person in mind, which
I understand. And that’s kind of the person
I want to distance myself from in this space.
You know what I mean? You know, you want to
be reasonable. You don’t want to get carried
away with these just silly arguments that
are you know, they’re mostly just based on
emotions and whatnot. So this guy over here,
you know, saying the same thing, that’s just
completely asinine. Then he got the then you
got the Bitcoin drinking too much of the syrup
on the other side. That’s what I really want
to get away from. And it sounds like this
person just hasn’t really done the research
into what it is. So I, you know, I’d have
to say at the outset, I’m just not. It just
sounds, it just sounds like a non-event, really.
I’d just love to hear the question answered,
how does the government shutdown Bitcoin like
legitimately shut down to the point where
you cannot use it no matter what?
He was arguing that the government should
shut down Bitcoin to clarify, and if you read
his note, he was arguing against the approval
of a Bitcoin ETF. He didn’t say Bitcoin should
be shut down.
I mean, that’s quite a simple thing then.
I mean, you know, does Bitcoin need an ETF
or does not. I think it’s kind of grandfathered
in that it will get it one at some point.
I mean, it’s just headed toward that direction.
You know, we’re not just going to get CME
futures for no reason. And now we’re talking
about options on CME as well. I didn’t even
know they do options on CME, by the way. And
then on top of that, we just got Bakkt and
things are absolutely going in that directon.
It’s coming out. Next year, though. But yeah,
to me that’s showing that the traditional
market has actually been very accepting of
Bitcoin. It’s just a slow process as it you
know, as it kind of should be because these
things are very new volatile technologies.
You wanna take your time getting to know them.
And then I think that that’s what the market
do. And I think that is the right thing to
do.
Cool. So let’s switch gears a little bit and
let’s talk about some of the bigger names
in cryptocurrency right now. Specifically
Libra and TON. So as you probably know, Libra
has been losing a lot of its members over
the past few weeks, including MasterCard,
Visa, PayPal and Booking Holdings. And the
TON ICO release has been delayed to February
because of SEC problems. And now Mark Zuckerberg
is going before the Senate tomorrow to discuss
data issues with Facebook.
How are these delays affecting the cryptocurrency
space?
So the way that I’ve always known markets
is that markets love certainty. And whenever
you have an uncertain, you know, just whatever
conversation – the market hates that, and
in this sense, the market kind of treats Libra
in a similar vein to Bitcoin. And I know that
people are gonna really dislike that statement,
but let me explain. The way that the traditional
market kind of plays things as you do it through
like corollaries, you feel like the next best
thing. And the way that the traditional market
is kind of looks at Bitcoin is that it is
related to Libra just by the name cryptocurrency,
essentially. So I believe that we’ve actually
seen a lot of the positive momentum in price
action over the past three, four months. Obviously
not the last month. But in that run up from
what was it like June to where we were in
September, essentially, that was also a lot
of, you know, a lot due in part to Libra just
coming into line, because when the government
or when the SEC or whatever, you know, Congress,
whatever it might be, you know, accepts Libra,
it sets a standard and it makes crypto more
mainstream just by that just, you know, just
by that name kind of being now accepted, I
suppose, just by being spoken about.
So kind of answer question in multiple facets.
I do think that, you know, Libra kind of proven
itself in a way. And if it does have a good
hearing tomorrow, I would expect you know,
I would expect, you know, a nice move to the
upside probably to the $9,000s, actually,
if that were to happen. I don’t think that
that’s necessarily grand. I don’t think that
that’s necessarily all said and done. But
a strong Libra would be good for Bitcoin.
And I do believe that we saw a lot of the
run up and also kind of at some of the downfalls
precipitated on just random news, parts of
of Libra’s partnerships and kind of their
overall acceptance. You know, as the story
went on. The big thing with that is, the big
thing with Libra is that if Libra can actually
pull through here, it makes Libra antifragile.
And even though all of these major companies,
all these major names have left them, I think
said Visa, PayPal and then a bunch of other
ones. Well, that’s kind of a big blow. If
Libra actually pushes on through here and
survives that and then and does what it sets
out to do, that’s going to be incredibly powerful.
So it’s gonna be very, very interesting thing
to kind of monitor over the next six months,
twelve months, whatever, whatever it ends
up being. I’m not qualified to speak on the
legal aspect of that, because I know nothing
about it, but I can only say that I would
expect the market to move off this. And this
is why I’m kind of a little bit more guarded
with the way that I’m doing my own analysis,
my own trading right now. Just because, you
know, I can come up with some incredibly bullish
things. I can come up with mostly, mostly
bearish things, actually. But I do believe
tomorrow’s events gonna be likely a big driver.
Mati, how do you feel about that?
I thought it was very interesting. Specifically
on the legal aspect, how just yesterday, the
day before, I believe, Libra kind of took
a change in direction.
We heard David Marcus announced that they
would be open to rather than having a basket
of currencies, actually have more of a stablecoin
type of model where depositors in the US would
hold US dollar stablecoins. Depositors in
the UK, for example, would hold GBP stablecoins.
And I think that that actually gives the entire
project a lot more of a clear path forward
as far as regulation is concerned. First of
all, it’s something that’s already being done
by several large financial firms where they
have tokenized fiat currencies and those are
completely legal and as well done by major
financial institutions throughout the world
who continuously print US dollars.
Of course, they don’t call it, you know, JP
Morgan dollars. They just call it US dollars.
But actually having that kind of clarity and
say, OK, these are the dollars that Facebook
actually introduced, I think that that could
actually give the entire project from a regulatory
standpoint, much more stable footing. I was
very curious about the companies who pulled
out because I didn’t really understand why
would they pull out at this point, at this
early stage. It doesn’t seem like they have
much to lose by staying in. However, you know,
if the project does go forward and does clear
that regulatory hurdle, I do believe that
Facebook will not have any problem finding
100 companies that are willing to plop down
$10 million on something that seems very,
very sure is going to happen and be immediately
open to all of Facebook users. They would
be silly not to.
Yeah, agreed. That sets a precedent for the
overall market and I think that it directly
affects Bitcoin as well and just cryptos in
general. So something I’d definitely be paying
attention to. You know, as this kind of unfolds
here, like I said, tomorrow, if we see, you
know, if if there’s just a good sentiment
going into this meeting, which I’m sure will
be live broadcasted as well, so if you want
to watch, you certainly can. Then I would
imagine that that’s going to likely show up
in the market.
Either way, we’ll be able to tell very clearly
what the effects of Libra on Bitcoin are.
Last time we were in a rally, we saw Libra,
you know, the Libra hype and Bitcoin rising
together. But there were many other narratives
of Bitcoin surrounding it at the time. Now
we’re looking at a very low volume environment.
If we do suddenly see some sort of huge price
movement, positive or negative in reaction
to those hearings, I think we’ll have a much
better understanding of how Libra affects
Bitcoin and vice versa.
Right. And you know, everything that I look
at from a charting perspective is suggestive
that we do see some pretty massive price action
precipitated on tomorrow’s event. Volatility,
as Mati said, is extremely low. I mean, if
I bring up my screenshare just once again,
there are just so many influences here showing
that we are in decision phase for, you know,
a multi thousand dollar move relatively very
soon. I’m looking at stock volatility percentile
and just about every time frame is extremely
low. We are at low. We are lower than we were
from the breakdown from $10,000 where we are
right now. This was just about a week ago,
two weeks ago right here. We’re even at about
the same area from historical volatility percentile
standpoint or sorry, even lower than what
we broke out from March by the way, as well.
But we’re basically at the same kind of read
that we saw from $6,000 to $3,000 drop right
here. So I do believe that we’re gonna be
looking at a major, massive move. Momentum
are suggesting some bullishness in here. But,
you know, like I said, I would actually be
extremely bearish here if it wasn’t for my
own indicator, the jewel.
And I’d be happy to put on some pretty massive
shorts. But looking at this right here, I
mean, we do have some death crosses on the
way. And it makes it very difficult for me
to be bullish as long as we’re below $8,700.
So I do believe that the benchmark is going
to give clarity on the situation. And the
way that I would be trading is just whichever
way that we break from this consolidation,
it’s very simple here. I mean this is not
like crazy technical analysis just above $8,650
or below our current lows like $7,900. That’s
going to be the next major move. To the downside,
I’ve been looking at targets into the upper
$6,000s. To the upside, I’d be looking at
targets into the mid to low $9,000s and perhaps
beyond. So right now, you know, if you’re
not in position right now, I mean, that’s
a pretty noble decision, to be quite honest.
Realistically, all you have to do is just
wait, just wait another day. Once you have
clarity on the direction, then you know this
jump on the winning team, essentially.
What would happen to the cryptocurrency market
if their regulatory challenges are insurmountable?
Fizzle. Yeah, I’d be devastated.
You know, Bitcoin can survive on its own without
that. I’m sure that it could, but it certainly
put a massive damper in the progress that’s
been made thus far with kind of joining the
traditional world from the crypto world, which
I know that the true crypto fiends are going
to hate that statement. I’m going to hate
it right there. But here’s the thing, man.
Here’s the thing. At the end of the day, I
do believe I strongly believe that’s the best
solution here, is kind of combine the good
parts from cryptocurrency land and the good
parts from traditional land, and then you’re
probably going to merge together. And that’s
the way forwards. That’s kind of how I see
what’s going on right now, especially with
Libra, especially with the fact that we’re
you know, we’re talking about an ETF still.
The fact that we’ve already got in futures
on a major U.S. exchange. I mean, CME is one
of the best ones. And we’re talking about
options coming on there, you know, coming
into next year and then more and then Bakkt
and all that good stuff. So that I believe
is kind of setting up the stage for this,
you know, integration.
And Fidelity making their roll out.
Yeah, absolutely.
I’ll give you a possible scenario that might
just happen in the future. And I hope for
your sake it doesn’t. Let’s say Mark Zuckerberg
tomorrow gets completely sloshed in Congress.
And confidence in the Libra project goes down
the tube. Traders like yourself are happy
to take a break out to the downside. And then
that ends up being a complete bear trap. Okay,
so this is exactly what happened in the ETF
decision, the Winklevoss ETF decision of March
2017. The ETF was highly anticipated, much
hyped and then completely squashed by the
SEC.
Right, but hold on. Let me stop you there,
let me stop you there.
An ETF was never… Nine month rally, one
of the greatest rallies of all time where
the crypto traders said, we don’t need your
ETF, we don’t need your Wall Street products.
We don’t need any of that. Great, we have
Bakkt on board, come on board. Great, we have
Fidelity on board, come on board. Other than
that, we’re moving forward.
This market is extremely immature and extremely
young. That would be the wrong, extremely
wrong stance to be taken. That’s a possibility,
I’m saying, that’s all. Right, possibly. Perhaps,
yes. But again, the way forward is by more
mainstream adoption, whether people like it
or not. I know the traditional crypto person
hates hearing that, but the best thing is
to meet somewhere in the middle. That’s how
you get real adoption.
That’s how you get mainstream people into
this game, which is, I believe, the true purpose
of Bitcoin is to really become something bigger,
not just for, you know, not just like this
super niche type thing, but something bigger,
encompassing and including everyone in the
world.
But don’t forget, with that, with greater
institutional adoption comes greater price
stability, which means that all those crypto
traders who are hoping for those thousand
dollar movements. Those moments go away as
the larger institutions enter the crypto market.
Right, hold on. So let’s just take that one
step further. I’ll go into the chart just
one more second here. I have to extremely
disagree with that. So cryptocurrency land
is a very unique place right now because you
have an extremely volatile asset that moves,
you know, sometimes thousands of dollars per
day and you can trade up to like a 100x leverage.
On exchange Binance now you can do like a
220-225 bucks leverage, which no one needs
by the way. A little bit of that going on.
But what Mati us saying over here is that
some price stability would be bad. I would
actually disagree. It would be so far fetched
for, you know, in the future that they would
even become an issue because we trade, you
know, we trade like legitimate fiat currencies
which trade quite literally like four decimal
places to the right, as you can see over here.
I mean, we’re looking at an extremely, extremely
small amount of moves.
But many, you know, you can make a living
trading this right here. There’s plenty of
opportunity because you have that leverage,
because you have you know, you can still trade
those moves. It’s always a percentage game.
So as far as that statement goes, I think
traders wouldn’t care. Traders trade, you
know, Forex all day and not imagine that Bitcoin
would be no different. In fact, I think it’d
be much more readily accepted by traders because
now we’re going to have it, it would also
imply that we have more liquidity so you can
get your fils where the biggest issues with
Bitcoin right now and the biggest issue with
institutions coming in here is that you just
you can’t get your fills. Why is Bakkt doing
no volume? Because no one’s trading there.
No one’s trading there. And how do you get
more people to trade there? Well, you need
more liquidity. How to get more liquidity?
You need more well, you need more people trading
there. It’s like a chicken or the egg type
thing. My point is, is that that is just the
natural progression. And it’s not going to
really change anything for the traders. It’s
only going to change things for people who
are like using degenerate amounts of leverage.
And you need a move like that in order to
produce like a respectable amount from their
trading. You know, for people who you know,
for people who are professional traders, it
just be, you know, as Forex.
And remember, we’re talking about Forex, which
literally moves in, not point. Not, not not
one of a decimal, which is in every tech.
And we’re talking about Bitcoin, which moves
literally in a half dollar ticks like not
even to the, you know, multiple decimal place
to the right. We’re talking about half dollar
ticks. And you could see like you could see
a $50 move in the span of, you know, 10 minutes.
And it doesn’t really change anything. That
would be so far and well away. And then we
also kind of have, you know, already set a
precedent with Forex anyway. So I think it’s
kind of a non-event, really.
That was Mati Greenspan and Erik Crown bringing
the latest in this week’s crypto market.
Thank you, everyone, for watching. My name is Jackson
and always remember to like, subscribe and comment.

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